Day 13 400 nm to go

(Blog update at 07:30 July 14)

Position reports as of 9:00 pm July 13, local Vancouver are shown above. The race to the finish is on! The interesting one to watch I think will be Turicum and Pyreneenne. Very close, both have a distance to finish of about 390nm but the boats are separated by 150nm. Someone will have a better sailing angle/speed and it will be interesting to see how it develops.

Below is the weather forecast for Hawaii Offshore through Friday which is essentially where they are sailing now, and what they are sailing into. Life should be much easier aboard after the crashing and banging of the last 10 days, but now getting the most speed out of the boats for the push to the finish will be the challenge.


HAWAIIAN OFFSHORE WATERS
1200 AM HST WED JUL 14 2010


REST OF TONIGHT
E TO NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
E TO NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT...EXCEPT E
TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT S OF 18N. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT...
BECOMING 7 TO 8 FT SUNDAY.

500 nm To go

As of 6:00 pm yesterday (Monday) the positions of the Division 2 boats are shown above. I've also included the lead boat Teremoto. From all accounts in the race web site blog entries it's been a wild and fun! ride. Some injuries, some equipment failures, all of the normal interesting things that go on for a race like this.

Looking ahead I ran the GRIB weather files for the next 3 to 5 days. Good news, bad news. Light winds forecast, everything in the 5-10 knots on Grib, which usually means it's going to be about 10-15. Either way that's a lot lighter than it's been, and it looks like it's going to stay that way all the way in. That will test everyone's patience becasue by now the miles will just seem to inch by and you really want them to fly bye. A very different mental challenge.

Also above are the current (current at 6:00 PM thursday winds from the closest weahter bouy as they approach. It's also in the postition report above. You can see the winds and wave heights they are heading into are way, way down from what they have seen so far. Bring out the sunscreeen, dry out the boat!

Day 4 - What's with the Weather ?

Good question. So if you read the forecast data I showed in the blog as "Day 2 - Weather" which was really a forecast for Day 3 (Saturday) you would have assumed as I did they were going to get some pretty good winds through Saturday and Sunday. Specifically:


SAT AND SAT NIGHT
W TO NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT
SAT...BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT SAT NIGHT
SUN THROUGH TUE
WINDS BECOMING N TO NW 15 TO 25 KT LATE SUN.



What they actually got was something a little less than that but generally about right for the higher end. The below the chart shows the location of an offshore bouy called "46809" which is located about 75 nm off the coast at Tillamook, Oregon and its the closest bouy I could find for the area they are currently sailing. (Tip, if the picture is fairly small in your browser window then double click on it and it should enlarge).


The chart above the picture shows the wind speed, gust wind speed and direction for the last 24 hours at that bouy. (If you would like to see more for that bouy, including wave heights, periods, pressure etc then go to http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46089 ). You can see that the wind died off to about 3 knots at noon yesterday (Saturday) and built fairly steadily over the 24 hours. Latest gust was about 19 knots and thats within the ranges for the Sunday forecast.


So on the whole the forecast wasn't too bad but it is a reminder that it's based on averages and maximums over a period and can easily vary considerably at specific moments. And it fits with what Les, Naomi and Hale described as their most recent experiences.


Now looking ahead at the most recent forecasts for today, the next 24 hours and beyond, given that the fleet continues on the current southerly course I'm going to guess they are in for some fun, and fast, sailing. We shall see.


This forecast is for the area extending from where they currently are to the south, and out from the coast for a distance of about 250nm. It covers a fairly large area down to Pt St George at the northern border of California.


PZZ080-050530-

 330 PM PDT SUN JUL 4 2010      

.SYNOPSIS FOR WASHINGTON AND OREGON WATERS...

HIGH PRES JUST W OF  

THE AREA WILL DRIFT N 

THROUGH TUE...WEAKEN WED

...THEN SLOWLY  MOVE SW THU AND FRI. 

A STRONG LOW PRES TROUGH ALONG THE SRN  OREGON COAST 

WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT...

EXPAND N ALONG THE  COAST TUE AND WED WHILE WEAKENING...

THEN CONTINUE THU AND FRI.  $$     
  SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...

WHICH IS THE AVERAGE  

HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. 

INDIVIDUAL WAVES 

MAY BE  MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.        

PZZ082-050530-  CAPE LOOKOUT TO POINT ST GEORGE  

330 PM PDT SUN JUL 4 2010    GALE WARNING

TONIGHT AND MON  

N WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT FAR SE PORTION  25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT...HIGHEST SE.   

MON NIGHT  

N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT FAR SE PORTION 30 TO  40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT...HIGHEST SE.   

TUE  N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING 20 TO 30 KT...HIGHEST SE.  

SEAS 8 TO 12 FT...HIGHEST S. 

Day 4 - Screaming South

News is in from the Turicum crew. If you haven't already done so, then checkout the Saturday blog entries from Les, Naomi and I think Hale. Good to hear from them. So Day 4 and where do they all stand? Take a quick look at the google earth snapshot for an overview. Things are getting interesting.

This report is based on the 0830 (that's 8:30 am pacific time, not GMT or local to the boats) position reports, which is slightly different than previous days because not all of the data was posted for the 0430 time.

Turicum is now furthest West and Pyreneenne have moved further South. In terms of distance to the finish Turicum is marginally closer. Both are trying to find the fastest way around the pacific high and as before the question remains: better to head south first then west or head west sooner ? Stay tuned for the whole race to figure out the answer to that question. The boats are still in fairly close quarters too so it's too early to tell if anyone has an advantage. Pyreneenne is 26 nm south east of Turicum. Sonsie is 22 nm behind Turicum to the NNE. They really are still quite close to each other. Fascinating stuff.

Note also I've plotted Terremoto on the chart. Terremoto is what should be the fastest of the Division 2 boats that started yesterday. What will be interesting is to watch how the other division fares in catching u,p and what courses they choose. Interesting that she is staying closer inshore than the previous courses and will be hunting for stronger faster winds. Makes you wonder if that is what Pyreneenne is doing too, by heading further south than Turicum. Previously Pyreneenne was the most westerly boat. Terremoto is about 175 nm behind the leading pack of Division 1 boats.

And it looks like Black Watch is back on track. After heading out into the pacific she turned around and went back to the Juan de Fuca entrance, and has subsequently resumed sailing SW on the race course and is back in the Pacific. Something happened along the way and it will be interesting to find out what, but it looks like they are back on track.

So that's about it for todays position reports. The boats (Turicum, Sonsie, Pyreneenne) are about 140 nm offshore at about the Washington/Oregon border. They are sailing fast generally in a SSW direction and will probably have another fun day!

Unlike the previous blog entries I'm going to do a separate update on the weather. Some interesting observations there, but I'm going to take a break for now and come back to it. If you have any thoughts, questions, observations or other websites that can give us information please do get in touch with me via this blog or by contacting andyelliott@shaw.ca

Day 3 - The very fuzzy view from shore

So where are they and what’s happening? Good question. Take a look at the attached “Google Earth” screen shot and I’ll share my inferences with you with lots of caveats, the first of which is Black Watch. The position reports indicate she went south then turned back northwards and is currently approaching Juan De Fuca, but is heading south again. Now it’s quite possible the position reports are incorrect, we will have to wait and see. So for now I’m not sure what’s happening with Black Watch.

Turicum is furthest south but Pyrenneene is further west and therefore closer to the destination. Read below as to why this isn’t necessarily bad. I’d still give the upper hand to Turicum at this point. On the screen shot the “line” is the great circle (i.e. shortest distance) route to Maui. So Pyreneenne is about 60 nautical miles west of Turicum but at last report were sailing at 4.5 knots where Turicum is sailing at 7.5 knots. Sonsie is about 15 nm behind Turicum sailing on about the same heading. All 3 boats are heading SSW at about 205 degrees. In broader terms Turicum is about 90nm offshore and on a north/south line they are somewhere between Seattle and Portland.

I’m guessing the crew had an amazing night sail last night. If you take a look at the speed and heading data for the last 24 hours you can see that between 4:30 am Friday and Noon they were sailing at under 4 knots. But sometime after noon they picked up the winds (likely from the NW) and have taken off. Boat speeds since then have been 6.5, 6.5 8.1 and 7.6 knots at 4:30, 8:30, midnight ant 4:30 this morning. I’m also going to bet they have gone through more than a few sail changes along the way looking for the right combinations. Wind speeds were building as the night progressed and probably falling off a little along the way too. But remember, that’s just my imagination guessing, I really have no first hand data as to what’s happening on board.
The other thing that happens is you get very, very tired the first few days. I know that from my own experience on the 2009 ARC trans atlantic crossing. Your body takes time to adjust to the watches, its hard work, and believe me its hard work just getting food and rest. So although we have not heard from the crew yet, don’t be discouraged. I know that one of the last things I wanted to do was sit down on my PC and send letters! That will come, but for now they will be focused on getting past the tired stage, getting used to life on board, the excitement of what’s going on (especially since the wind and speed are up) and making the mental and physical adjustments necessary for the next couple of weeks afloat!

The big, big, big, big question: When to head west instead of south. For the none (or novice) sailors following this blog I can’t tell you how significant a question this is. Not only will Gunnar and Hale be spending almost every waking minute thinking about it, but everyone else on board will too. Not only is this the key question to answer it’s also the most difficult too. Let me try to explain with a bad analogy. For my Calgary friends it’s like having to go from one end of the city to the other, say from north to the south. You can go the straight line route i.e. minimum distance but that means going straight across the city and it’s slow. You know it’s slow but once in a blue moon it can be very fast (like at 3:00 am if you hit all the green lights). On the other hand you can take the freeway/highway and go around the outside. Much, much faster and you get there much sooner even though you travel much further. Same with the sailing problem. If you take the straight line from Victoria to Maui you are (99 times out of 100) going to run into a lot of very low wind, slow speeds. If you go down south then turn right (starboard is the nautical term) you can (90+ times out of a hundred) go much faster and overall your time is much (much) shorter. But there’s the rub. The weather is constantly changing. It’s not guaranteed this will happen it’s only likely and possible. Over the course of two weeks wind speeds change, go up an down. How far south should you go before you turn west? At some point if you go too far south and the other boats turn west before you will they get and stay ahead of you or vica versa? Terribly complex questions and at the end of the day it’s a combination of skill, experience and luck that helps you choose. So that’s what they are consumed with at the moment. Oh yes, in addition to just trying to go as fast as possible on the course they do choose.
So what’s on the radar (so to speak) for today? Hopefully we will get some news from the boats and see what’s really happening. Secondly the other division (5 boats) starts today so it will be fascinating to watch their tactics as they try to chase down and overtake the first division. I’ll include some position reporting on them tomorrow. And lastly the weather, see below for a forecast for the area they are currently sailing in. Bottom line the winds are going to increase over the next forecast period.

That’s it for now, more news tomorrow. And please remember all of my thoughts and inferences here are subject to error, I’m guessing at most of this based on what I can find out there. Also it’s early in the morning and I’m likely to make mistakes until I fully wake up. For those of you who can use Google Earth I have a place mark file you can upload to see all of the marks and positions. Enjoy. (You will have to send a note to andyelliott@shaw.ca to get a copy of the file). Feel free to get in touch with me if you have comments, questions or suggestions.


.SYNOPSIS FOR WASHINGTON AND OREGON WATERS...A LOW PRES TROUGH
WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE WATERS EARLY TODAY. HIGH PRES WILL
BUILD NE OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUN. HIGH PRES WILL REBUILD
JUST W OF THE AREA LATER SUN THROUGH MON THEN REMAIN IN PLACE
TUE AND WED WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. A LOW PRES TROUGH WILL
EXPAND N ALONG THE COAST MON INTO WED.
$$

________________________________________

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.


PZZ081-031730-
CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE LOOKOUT
330 AM PDT SAT JUL 03 2010

TODAY AND TONIGHT
W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT
WINDS BECOMING N TO NW 15 TO 25 KT LATE
SUN. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT SUN NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
HIGHEST E.

Day 2 Weather

A weather forecast for the area Turicum will be sailing in today:

PZZ081-021730-
CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE LOOKOUT
330 AM PDT FRI JUL 2 2010


TODAY
NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING W TO NW 15 TO 20
KT...EXCEPT FAR NE PORTION TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS E PORTION EARLY.

TONIGHT
W TO NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT
W TO NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT
SAT...BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT SAT NIGHT.

SUN THROUGH TUE
WINDS BECOMING N TO NW 15 TO 25 KT LATE SUN.
SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 10 FT SUN. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHEST E.
$$

Vic Maui Day 2 - The view from shore

So where are the boys and girls and what's going ? If that question has your interest too then read on. What I'm hoping to do is porvide a "view from the shore" based on any information I can find. So if you have other sources that might shed light on the race, the crew(s) and other goings on then please do let me know.

This update was prepared at 0700 pacific on Friday July 2nd.

Where are they? Well the short answer is that as of 0430 this morning (local time) they were headed west at just over 3 knots and were approaching the entrance to Juan do Fuca. (Or the exit from Juan de Fuca from their perspective). Which means that as of this note they are likely out by Cape Flattery and deciding on their next options. Oh, and by the way, they are leading the pack! The attached file shows a screen shot of where the four boats are positioned as of 0430. Turicum is about 1.5 nautical miles ahead of Black Watch and the separation between the four boats is about 15 miles. So as the sun comes up it’s likely they can still see each other.

Now this is where it starts to get interesting because over the next 24 to 48 hours we will start to see some tactics come into play. Head south ? Head west ? Head on any point in between? Those are all the questions Gunnar and Hale will be spending huge amounts of time contemplating. From this point in it’s an incredible mix of science and art picking the most favorable course, and for some of us sailors that’s what makes this so interesting. Without first hand information from the boat all we can do is guess, so that’s what I intend to do and I’ll follow their progress relative to my calls just for the fun of it.

Currently the wind at Neah bay is from the SW at 1 to 2 knots so it’s pretty calm out there. They will be itching to turn the corner and get going. Peruse bank (further offshore and north) is showing NNW at 6 to 8 knots and that’s very good news because it means some favorable winds are likely to fill in as the day progresses, and they could be in for some fun sailing. Cape Elizabeth (further south off the coast from Tacoma) is showing N winds at 13-15. So looking at the weather forecasts and grib files for the next 24 hours I’d say it’s likely Spinnakers and Asymetrics on deck, and that will be fun for them. But who knows, I’m a long way from the boat and what they are experiencing. I think they are going to start to rocket off! It will be interesting to watch their distance made, boat speed and direction. You might want to check the Boat Tracker information on the Vic Maui race webpage. If you select Turicum then hover over the last position you can see the last reported boat heading and speed.

So the weather looks like N or NW winds building to 10-20 through the day, then easing overnight likely 5-15 then building again tomorrow. And it looks like more wind offshore so my WAG is they will sail SW for the next 24 hours and see what happens! Longer term it’s still looking favorable with N or NW winds taking them down to the trades and the highs still building/holding north of Hawaii. But remember, I’m an optimist through and through so I’ll always hope for the best. Sailors are a lot like fisherman, the stories get bigger and bigger as time goes on. Have fun, more later.

Friday July 2nd at 0430: