Day 4 - What's with the Weather ?

Good question. So if you read the forecast data I showed in the blog as "Day 2 - Weather" which was really a forecast for Day 3 (Saturday) you would have assumed as I did they were going to get some pretty good winds through Saturday and Sunday. Specifically:


SAT AND SAT NIGHT
W TO NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT
SAT...BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT SAT NIGHT
SUN THROUGH TUE
WINDS BECOMING N TO NW 15 TO 25 KT LATE SUN.



What they actually got was something a little less than that but generally about right for the higher end. The below the chart shows the location of an offshore bouy called "46809" which is located about 75 nm off the coast at Tillamook, Oregon and its the closest bouy I could find for the area they are currently sailing. (Tip, if the picture is fairly small in your browser window then double click on it and it should enlarge).


The chart above the picture shows the wind speed, gust wind speed and direction for the last 24 hours at that bouy. (If you would like to see more for that bouy, including wave heights, periods, pressure etc then go to http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46089 ). You can see that the wind died off to about 3 knots at noon yesterday (Saturday) and built fairly steadily over the 24 hours. Latest gust was about 19 knots and thats within the ranges for the Sunday forecast.


So on the whole the forecast wasn't too bad but it is a reminder that it's based on averages and maximums over a period and can easily vary considerably at specific moments. And it fits with what Les, Naomi and Hale described as their most recent experiences.


Now looking ahead at the most recent forecasts for today, the next 24 hours and beyond, given that the fleet continues on the current southerly course I'm going to guess they are in for some fun, and fast, sailing. We shall see.


This forecast is for the area extending from where they currently are to the south, and out from the coast for a distance of about 250nm. It covers a fairly large area down to Pt St George at the northern border of California.


PZZ080-050530-

 330 PM PDT SUN JUL 4 2010      

.SYNOPSIS FOR WASHINGTON AND OREGON WATERS...

HIGH PRES JUST W OF  

THE AREA WILL DRIFT N 

THROUGH TUE...WEAKEN WED

...THEN SLOWLY  MOVE SW THU AND FRI. 

A STRONG LOW PRES TROUGH ALONG THE SRN  OREGON COAST 

WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT...

EXPAND N ALONG THE  COAST TUE AND WED WHILE WEAKENING...

THEN CONTINUE THU AND FRI.  $$     
  SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...

WHICH IS THE AVERAGE  

HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. 

INDIVIDUAL WAVES 

MAY BE  MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.        

PZZ082-050530-  CAPE LOOKOUT TO POINT ST GEORGE  

330 PM PDT SUN JUL 4 2010    GALE WARNING

TONIGHT AND MON  

N WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT FAR SE PORTION  25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT...HIGHEST SE.   

MON NIGHT  

N WINDS 20 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT FAR SE PORTION 30 TO  40 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT...HIGHEST SE.   

TUE  N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING 20 TO 30 KT...HIGHEST SE.  

SEAS 8 TO 12 FT...HIGHEST S.